Nigeria's combined oil and condensate output declined for two consecutive years before a modest recovery, then resumed its downward trajectory. The pattern reflects the broader structural challenges facing the upstream sector rather than cyclical price-driven adjustments.

The two consecutive declines between 2020 and 2022 represent a cumulative loss of 168 million barrels, equivalent to approximately 91 days of peak production capacity. The partial recovery in 2023 and 2024 reflects improved security conditions and restoration of vandalized pipeline infrastructure. However, 2025 production remained 17.7% below the 2020 baseline, confirming the sector has not recovered to pre-disruption levels.

Crude oil dominates Nigeria's liquid production, accounting for 84.2% of cumulative 2020–2026 output at 3.04 billion barrels. Condensate contributed 15.8% at 571 million barrels. A more concerning trend is the accelerating decline in condensate production — volumes fell from 124 million barrels in 2020 to just 65 million barrels in 2025, a 47.4% decline over five years, reflecting the maturation of key condensate-producing fields and limited new deepwater development activity during the period.

Nigeria's export terminal infrastructure is concentrated, with the top five terminals accounting for 51.2% of cumulative output. This concentration creates systemic vulnerability — any single terminal disruption has an outsized impact on national production figures.

Forcados emerged as the highest-volume terminal across the period, surpassing Bonny which has historically dominated Nigeria's crude export capacity. This shift reflects both the expansion of Forcados' feeder pipeline network and disruptions at Bonny that constrained throughput in certain years. The number of active reporting terminals grew from 27 in 2020 to 30 in 2026 — a positive diversification signal for long-term production resilience.

Nigeria's gas production remained broadly stable between 2021 and 2025, ranging from 2.49 to 2.74 trillion MMscf annually. Unlike oil, gas production demonstrated relative resilience — a reflection of the pipeline-based nature of gas delivery which provides some insulation against crude theft and bunkering.

Associated Gas (AG) accounts for 55.8% of cumulative gas output, with Non-Associated Gas (NAG) at 44.2%. The 2026 year-to-date data shows NAG nearly equalling AG for the first time — a trend signalling growing energy transition alignment.

Nigeria's gas commercialization rate improved from 90.3% in 2021 to 92.7% in the January–April 2026 period.

The utilization breakdown shows export sales account for 40.7% of utilized gas, followed by field use at 31.9% and domestic sales at 27.4%. The dominance of export over domestic reflects Nigeria's established LNG infrastructure relative to the underdeveloped domestic gas distribution network.

Gas flaring declined from 9.2% in 2021 to 6.7% in the 2026 year-to-date period. In absolute terms, cumulative flaring amounted to approximately 1,085 Bscf — a substantial volume representing both economic loss and environmental impact.

At the current rate of improvement (~0.5 percentage points per year), Nigeria is not on track to achieve the 2030 ZEFLOC target. Closing the remaining 6.7 percentage point gap in four years would require roughly triple the current pace. The NNPC Gas Master Plan 2026, launched in January 2026, targets gas production of 10 bcf/d by 2027 and 12 bcf/d by 2030, committing ~$22 billion in pipeline infrastructure investment. If executed at scale, it would significantly accelerate flare reduction — but Nigeria has set ambitious flaring targets before, including a 2020 zero-flaring deadline it did not meet.